Every day in the media you can see statistics for economic shrinkage and accompanying mass unemployment. I’m going to have to touch on that but what I really want to do is focus on the pandemic’s impact on those seeking to start or continue their careers.

This is the fifth recession I have experienced. The first in the mid 1970s I was barely aware of because being at school it was more of a problem for my parents and neither were unduly affected. The recession of the early 1980s was another matter entirely though.

That Recession saw unemployment rise from 5.9% in late 1979 to 11.9% in 1984 and it more or less remained that way until 1987, despite economic growth re-establishing itself in 1982. Entire economic sectors were virtually wiped out and only in the South East did unemployment stay below 10%.

This recession is different from any other in that its root cause is not some kind of economic crisis or shortage of liquidity. Its about a virus that has changed established patterns of social and commercial behaviour. However, we can see that as in the early 1980s, whole commercial sectors have been disproportionately affected. In the 1980s it was manufacturing that suffered, today it’s retail, hospitality and leisure. The causes and sectors affected differ, but the impact and duration of the Covid Recession will be very similar to the one the country endured in the 1980s.

In November 2020, the Office of Budget Responsibility outlined three possible short term trends for unemployment…

Their ‘Upside’ scenario has unemployment peaking at 5.1% in Q2 of 2021.

The ‘Middle Ground’ scenario has a 2021 Q2 peak of 7.5%.

They have a ‘This Is Not Happening’ scenario which has unemployment peaking at 11.1% in Q1 of 2022.

Unemployment in the UK hit 5.1% in Q1 of 2021, so the best prediction I can make is that we will return to economic growth in late 2022, but the hangover, by which I mean large scale unemployment, will be a factor until 2025 at the earliest.

There is still a job market, but recruiting decisions are being informed by the quality of the candidate pool and by Covid...

• Traditional first jobber vacancies are being taken by more experienced candidates who are prepared to take a pay cut.

• If a role needs in-office supervision, then it is being delayed until it is deemed safe to return to large scale attendance of the office.

Things are not going to be easy for the next 3 to 5 years, but they’re not going to be impossible either. Your career plans may be delayed, your path may be diverted but you will survive and eventually you will prosper. I say this because I came through the 1980s reasonably intact and you are almost certainly better qualified than I was.

Your survival through this time is going to be about making the very best of what you are and what you have. This blog aims to help you through a path to success. All of that said, there are some positive things we can look forward to…

The vaccine roll out is going well and by the summer, life will bear at least a passing resemblance to what it was like in 2019. This means that what is left of the hospitality industry will start to recruit again and there will be start ups looking to occupy the sites left by failed bars and restaurants.

Graduates are getting jobs. ApplyNowTV started working with 25 people in the 18 to 25 year old age range in November last year. Just under half of those people have moved into full time employment securing worthwhile and sustainable jobs. As the year passes, more companies will start to recruit, but there will be a lot of competition for those jobs. So you need to be better than the rest and we are here to guide you.

This recession is unique in another key respect – lockdown. There is no doubt that home isolation is having an effect on people’s mental health, but for those seeking work, it has provided an unexpected opportunity and that is the amount of free time it has created. If free time is the only asset we have, then what can do to use it to maximise our potential as job candidates? Here are some suggestions…

• Your CV. Is it up to scratch? Look out for an impending article on producing a Recruiter Friendly CV.

• Remote Interview Practice. People worry about how to manage a video interview. As above, we will be producing guidance materials on this subject.

• Your social media profile. Recruiters will check your profile. Is there anything there that may change a recruiter’s view of you? Why not audit your web presence now because the internet remembers even if you don’t.

• Speaking of social media, are you on LinkedIn yet? If not, why not?

• What’s your level of MS Office experience? Most of us can use Word, but how familiar are you with Powerpoint or Excel. If you have a computer and access to the programme suite, why not spend sometime developing your skills. If you don’t have Office, try LibreOffice. Its free and is very similar to the Microsoft equivalent.

So there’s three things you can do today…

Social media audit, join LinkedIn and look at developing your IT skills.

Shall we start?